2025年度，书画市场以总成交75.83亿元平稳落地。然而，在这庞大的数字背后，普品流拍率超过40%，地方画家的行画均价下跌22.6%。有人靠一幅画赚得盆满钵满，有人却亏得血本无归。收购名人字画，建议先搞懂市场的底层逻辑。

In 2025, the calligraphy and painting market will steadily land with a total transaction volume of 7.583 billion yuan. However, behind this huge number, the failure rate of ordinary paintings exceeds 40%, and the average price of local painters' paintings has dropped by 22.6%. Some people make a fortune from a painting, while others lose everything they have. To acquire celebrity calligraphy and painting, one must first understand the underlying logic of the market.

“名人”不等于“名作”——市场正在抛弃头衔溢价。 2025年雅昌艺术网数据显示，美协、书协等体制内艺术家的作品价格中，“头衔溢价”占比普遍超过40%，而真正因艺术水准带来的溢价不足30%。大量没有硬核价值支撑的书协作品价格泡沫持续出清，不少中书协理事的普通作品拍卖成交价已跌到数千元每平尺，甚至数百元起拍仍无人问津。反之，齐白石的《花鸟工虫册》单页成交价达9520万元，其单只虾画价格突破1200万元/平尺。市场正在用真金白银投票——真正值钱的不是“头衔”，而是“作品本身的艺术价值” 。

'Celebrity' does not equal 'masterpiece' - the market is abandoning the title premium. According to data from Artron Art Network in 2025, the proportion of "title premium" in the prices of artists' works within the art and book associations generally exceeds 40%, while the actual premium brought by artistic level is less than 30%. A large number of foam in the price of works of the Chinese Association of Calligraphers' Association that are not supported by hard core value continue to clear up, and the auction price of ordinary works of many members of the Chinese Association of Calligraphers' Association has dropped to thousands of yuan per square foot, or even hundreds of yuan from the beginning, no one is interested. On the contrary, Qi Baishi's "Flower, Bird, and Insect Handbook" sold for 95.2 million yuan per page, and the price of a single shrimp painting exceeded 12 million yuan per square foot. The market is voting with real money - what is truly valuable is not the title, but the artistic value of the work itself.

“生货”爆发、“熟货”遇冷——2025年市场的大变量。 2025年书画市场的一大亮点是低估价“生货”的爆发式表现。所谓“生货”，指从未在公开市场露面过的藏品。而“熟货”因多次转手导致交易成本叠加、价格吸引力下降。没有市场成本压力的海外名家旧藏生货，成了2025年书画市场上耀眼的存在。收购时要优先关注“传承有序、来源清晰”的生货，它们往往比反复流转的“熟货”有更大的溢价空间。

The outbreak of "raw goods" and the cooling of "mature goods" - major variables in the market in 2025. A major highlight of the calligraphy and painting market in 2025 is the explosive performance of undervalued "raw goods". The so-called 'raw goods' refer to collections that have never appeared in the public market. However, the repeated turnover of "mature goods" leads to the accumulation of transaction costs and a decrease in price attractiveness. Overseas famous artists without market cost pressure have become a dazzling presence in the calligraphy and painting market in 2025. When acquiring, priority should be given to "orderly inheritance and clear sources" of raw goods, which often have greater premium space than "mature goods" that are repeatedly circulated.

顶级的坚挺、普品的崩塌——两出彩分化正在加速。 2025年共有4件亿元、75件千万元拍品诞生。嘉德在书画板块总成交逾13亿元。西泠春拍黄宾虹诞辰160周年纪念专场与社员专场成交率逾九成。但与此同时，大量普品无人问津。收购名人字画的铁律已经清晰：宁可花100万买一幅顶级精品，也不要花10万买十幅普通行画。 精品永远稀缺，而普品永远过剩——这是市场给出的明确的信号。

Top tier resilience and the collapse of ordinary products - polarization is accelerating. In 2025, a total of 4 million yuan and 75 million yuan auction items will be produced. Jiade's total transaction volume in the calligraphy and painting sector exceeded 1.3 billion yuan. The transaction rate of the Xiling Spring Auction for the 160th anniversary of Huang Binhong's birth and the members' session exceeded 90%. However, at the same time, a large number of common products have gone unnoticed. The iron rule for acquiring celebrity calligraphy and painting is clear: it is better to spend one million yuan on a top-quality painting than to spend 100000 yuan on ten ordinary paintings. Premium products are always scarce, while general products are always in surplus - this is a clear signal given by the market.

收购前的三问：真伪、来源、品相。 收购一幅字画前，建议确认三个核心问题：是真迹吗？从哪来的？保存得怎么样？ 真伪是价值的基石，来源决定了市场的接受度，品相直接影响价格。一幅传承有序、品相完好的作品，即使作者名气不是大，也能卖出好价钱；而一幅来源不明、品相差的名家作品，可能连起拍价都达不到。

Three questions before acquisition: authenticity, source, and appearance. Before purchasing a calligraphy or painting, three core questions must be confirmed: Is it authentic? Where did it come from? How is it saved? Authenticity is the cornerstone of value, the source determines market acceptance, and the appearance directly affects price. A work with orderly inheritance and intact appearance can be sold at a good price even if the author is not well-known; However, a work by a renowned artist with unknown origin and varying quality may not even reach the starting price.

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